Buy stocks; buy, buy, and buy a little more—this is exactly what the stock market, currently controlled by a bear in sheep’s clothing, would like you to do. Signs of a stock market reversal are clear and should be taken seriously by my readers.
The S&P 500 is swimming in shark infested waters with no land in sight.
The stock market is closing its eyes to the fact that an increasing number of U.S. companies in the S&P 500 are becoming victims of the global economic slowdown. FedEx Corporation (NYSE/FDX), Intel Corporation (NASDAQ/INTC), International Business Machines Corporation (NYSE/IBM), and Norfolk Southern Corporation (NYSE/NSC) are just some of the companies that have already warned about their corporate earnings growth slowing, largely because of the global economic slowdown.
All investors should face the truth: the only reason the key stocks indices have gone up is money printing. The value of money goes down, and the prices of equities go up. However, as the global economic slowdown deepens, companies start making less money and their stock prices fall—even if more money is printed.
The warning signs about the reversal in the stock market’s direction are coming in at a fast rate. Dow theory is suggesting a reversal, corporate insiders are selling stock at a high rate, stock advisors are very bullish, corporate earnings are declining, and companies are warning about the economic slowdown affecting business—all in all, leading ingredients of a decline in the stock market.
In a recent development, Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE/CAT), the world’s biggest construction and mining equipment manufacturer, issued a warning about itscorporate earnings outlook. The company believes that the global economic slowdown will continue through 2015—and its corporate earnings will be between $12.00 and $18.00 a share in 2015, compared to a previously forecast $15.00 and $20.00 a share. (Source: Market Watch, September 26, 2012.)
Similarly, The Proctor & Gamble Company (NYSE/PG), a classic blue chip stock, has cut its corporate earnings outlook for the third time in the last 12 months. The company is the largest producer of household goods in the world. Proctor & Gamble’s core corporate earnings are estimated to be $0.91 to $0.97 a share now, compared to $1.03, and the company’s sales are also on track to decline between four to six percent in this quarter.
At the same time, companies like The Dow Chemical Company (NYSE/DOW), a manufacturer and supplier of chemicals worldwide, is trying to keep its forecasted corporate earnings on track, but it too has warned about the global economic slowdown affecting its operations. The company is cutting debt, costs, and capital spending.
NIKE, Inc. (NYSE/NKE), the athletic shoe and apparel manufacturer, is also showing weakness in corporate earnings. The company’s 2013 fiscal earnings growth is expected to increase in the high single digits as compared to the previously forecast high teens. Why? NIKE, like other companies, is experiencing problems due to global economic slowdown and currency, commodity, and labor cost fluctuations.
The downside risk for the stock market in the U.S. is increasing at an exponential rate. As financial data come in, key stock indices will decline. Gone are the days of staying in the stock market. Corporate earnings are declining due to global economic slowdown. The stock markets can only run so far on fading fumes.
CreditCorner’s Personal Notes:
The increased flow of negative news coming out of the eurozone is intensifying and Spain is at the forefront of it. The eurozone’s debt crisis is very critical to the U.S.’s economic future.
The current situation is that the eurozone countries want Spain to implement severe austerity measures and to cut its spending—but the Spanish government has been failing to impress them. Spain desperately needs a financial bailout from its neighbors.
The Spanish government is planning to implement policies that would restrict people from taking early retirement. (Source: Wall Street Journal, September 26, 2012.) The Spanish government does not plan to reduce the pension, but has not decided whether the pension should be frozen. These austerity measures are not welcomed by the people of Spain and protests have turned violent in Madrid. (Source: Reuters, September 26, 2012.)
The yield on the Spanish government bond is increasing and the cost of borrowing is too high. There’s no doubt about it; Spain needs money—be it from eurozone countries or the markets—to stop the debt crisis from becoming fatal.
Chances are that the Spanish government will borrow money from eurozone peers, because there are no other available options for it unless China steps in.
The issues at stake are how much money the Spanish government will need to recapitalize its banks and whether it will be able to go through with its austerity measures. Eurozone countries will be careful this time around, after witnessing Greece‘s struggle. Spain has already used 100 billion euros from the eurozone rescue fund in June; money that failed to put even a dent in Spain’s big-picture economic problems.
How does this all affect the U.S. economy and, ultimately, the U.S. stock markets?
If the Spanish government fails to implement the measures the eurozone countries are expecting, there will be much deeper consequences: the debt crisis will become more troublesome. The Spanish banks are wounded after the collapse in the housing market, and not getting quick treatment will create another downward spiral.
Spain is already in a deep, dark recession, and sadly it’s one of the major contributors among the eurozone economies. And any further slowdown in the eurozone economy will send even bigger spillover effects into the global economy. Spain needs to recapitalize its banks.
If the debt crisis deepens in Spain, the after-effects will spill over to other eurozone countries and it won’t take long for those severe economic issues to hit the shores of America.
There is already enough evidence of big U.S. companies witnessing their sales decreasing and profit growth declining due to the eurozone debt crisis. It won’t take much more turbulence from the eurozone to create havoc within the 40% of S&P 500 companies that have exposure to the eurozone economy.
Where the Market Stands; Where it’s Headed:
According to a report being circulated by Goldman Sachs, the Federal Reserve’s recently announced third round of quantitative easing (QE3) could result in $2.0 trillion of new money being created. Add this to the $2.3 trillion the Fed has previously created with QE1 and QE2 and the $6.0 trillion increase in the official U.S. national debt since President Obama took office and, presto, we have over $10.0 trillion in new money and debt created in about four years’ time.
The U.S. has never printed and borrowed so much money, ever, in such a short time period. What will be the end result? We are living through it. The stock market has rallied since March 2009 on all of this magically created money. But the next step is inflation. And when American companies can’t raise prices (to offset their increased costs) because consumers can’t afford higher prices, the whole house of cards will come crashing down.
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Great blog! It seems to me (I’m a practicing real estate broker with a bit of knowledge of the law) that any legislature could change things todayrequire a lender that would foreclose at a certain dollar amount to offer that benefit to the homeowner, sans attorney’s fees, accrued interest, and so forth. In other words, a principal reduction that matches the actual value of the property as determined by an independent appraisal supported by comparables is appropriate, unless the record of the banks’ foreclosures show that the bank is taking extra lossesand then the homeowner gets that reduction too. The loans would be rewritten (modified, not redone) at 30 years fully amortized or at the remaining term, with the interest rate currently in place for an “A” borrower. A test period of one year for the new loan seems about right. When this crisis began, I actually went to Washington Mutual and offered to effect a “deal” that would work for everyone concerned (I offered to go and sit down with the homeowner, figure out what they could pay, and then figure out how to help everyone)how naive I was!I do not believe that Congress fully appreciated the kinds of things the banks were doing, but certainly they could have changed course with Dodd-Frank. I do NOT fault the Federal Reserve as much as Congress and the two administrations that have overseen this debacle. It is actually a simple matter to ignore the lobbyist who says, “You’ll wreck the financial system,” and respond with, “Our commitment is to the taxpayers, not to you.” This is old news, but during the beginnings of the crisis, it was clear that borrowers could not pay these loans back, and I believe that the “powers that be” knew this, and acted against the best interest of homeowners anyway. The Congress even refused to enact the simplest response of all when they did the bailoutsto allow/enjoin an individual bankruptcy judge to reduce loan amounts to actual value minus sales costs (eliminate unsecured debt). This act alone would have simply conformed Chapter 13 bankruptcies to Chapter 11 rules (approximately), and created a true opportunity for reorganization for the taxpayers who found themselves underwater.As a result of this crisis, I believe that the entire financial system needs to be restructured and simplified, so that risks are calculable, and that borrowers (who were convinced to buy/refinance at the top of a bubble) get the same legal protections as those who made the loans. It is time to “deglobalize” the banking system as to within-country actions, so that the system itself cannot self-destruct inside the country. The simplest way to do this, of course, would be to separate internal lending from investment banking, with no sale of complicated securities allowed in real estate transactions, and no transfer of interests by conduit (MERS) without recording of the actual documents in the county where the loan was made. In addition, all banks must hold their loans in their own portfolios, with servicing held there as well, and subject to much stricter rules for both lending and servicing. This would go a long way to resolving problems for the future. It’s like trying to unscramble eggs, but it’s necessary.
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